Consumption Has Recovered, Jobs Will Follow

[Joseph Burkeson, CMI]

Some good economic news at last, and none too soon I might add.

Consumption Has Recovered, Jobs Will Follow



As a supply-sider, I don't believe that consumption drives economic growth. The driver of growth is supply, and supply goes up when people work more, when the factors of production become more productive, when investment goes up, and when risk-taking goes up. I show this chart of real personal consumption expenditures merely to show that what has happened in the economy over the past year is typical of every business cycle recovery. With almost all economic indicators confirming a decent recovery, with productivity up strongly, with business capital spending up strongly, with risk appetites increasing (e.g., the 60% rebound in the S&P 500 and the dramatic narrowing of credit spreads) and with consumption up as well, it is only a matter of time before we see an increase in the number of jobs. Jobs are the last place that a recovery will show up.

Excerpt: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1858...bs-will-follow

[Nick Gromicko]

My personal expenditures will not be going up. I make sure that all my personal items that I own in the world, fit on my bed. A dirt bike, bicycle, 1 TV, underwear, socks, shoes, skis, etc. All of it will fit on my bed.

If you get recession fever and just want to spend some money, invest it in YOUR business, NOT on personal crap or in someone else's business (stocks).

[Michael Roberson]

Nick I like your Philosophy Everything I owned used to fit in a '90s Escort Wagon.

[Mark E. Northrup]

Less is better.

[Robert W. Jude]

put it all on the saints and let it ride baby

[Brian C. Hoagland]

Well, in September when they retire the space shuttle my area is due to lose another 3 to 5,000 jobs at the cape and then another 2,000 due to them being gone. Looks like a double dip to me.

[Gary Farnsworth]

Ghandi:

If you have too many possessions, then your possessions will possess you.

[Michael Larson]

Some good economic news at last, and none too soon I might add

I think this guys crystal ball is broken but time will tell.

[Joseph Burkeson, CMI]

Originally Posted by mlarson

I think this guys crystal ball is broken but time will tell.

I believe I'm in very good company and stand on my previous post. Refuse let the glass half-full crowd get you down, remember they want Obama to fail and that failure would directly impinge upon you... So, in essence they want you to fail too, don't buy it.

Not The Great Depression
Why today is nothing like the 1930s.

Since the financial turmoil began, many analysts, investors and pundits have fretted about a repeat of the Great Depression. They worry that the pain is not over yet and fear that other shoes--like foreclosures or commercial real estate--will drop, causing another economic slide. They worry that when government stimulus winds down, the economy will fall again.

The opposite view is also in play. Many fear excess government activity. They worry that government has become too big and too much of a burden. Even if health care reform or a cap-and-trade carbon emissions scheme are no longer a threat, it's the "uncertainty" of all this government activity that is holding back business decisions, undermining job growth and threatening to cause further declines in economic activity. This is the key fear of many conservative pundits.

However, it's important to put things in perspective. Real GDP fell for four consecutive years (and by a total of more than 25%) between 1929 and 1933. Unemployment reached 25%. Nothing today even comes close. GDP is now rising and we expect unemployment has peaked.

Excerpt: http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/01/not...hannellighttop

[Michael Larson]

Reality bits joe.

Peter Schiff: We are surely doomed to repeat our mistakes

In the words of the Spanish philosopher George Santayana, "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Since our President cannot even learn from the mistakes of his immediate predecessor, to say nothing of those he made himself while in the Senate or during his first year as president, we are surely doomed to repeat them, perhaps more quickly than Santayana could have imagined.

Rather than tightening the reins on the reckless monetary policy that undermined our savings, diminished our industrial output, inflated asset bubbles, and led to reckless speculation on Wall Street and excess consumption on Main Street, we are loosing them further. Rather than repealing regulations that distort markets and create moral hazards, we are adding new ones that do more of the same. Rather than cutting government spending to reduce the burden it places on our economy, we are increasing both the amount of the spending and the size of the burden. Rather than making government smaller so that the private sector can grow, we are making government bigger and forcing the private sector to shrink. Rather than paying off our debts we are taking on even more. Rather than encouraging people to save we are enticing them to spend. Rather than creating jobs, we are merely creating unemployment benefits.

As a result, instead of seeding the soil for a real recovery we are setting the stage for a prolonged depression.

[Joseph Burkeson, CMI]

Originally Posted by mlarson

Reality bits joe.

Peter Schiff: We are surely doomed to repeat our mistakes

As a result, instead of seeding the soil for a real recovery we are setting the stage for a prolonged depression.

Fail. It would only make sense that Mike would post the views of a RWNJ politician like Peter Schiff whose only reason to exist is to oppose the Obama administration and win a senate seat instead of quoting an economist who has no political truck like Brian Wesbury.

Brian S. Wesbury is a prominent American economist and economic forecaster. He is noted as an accomplished macro economist. He is a monthly contributor for The American Spectator magazine, and serves as the magazine's economics editor. He is published regularly in the The Wall Street Journal, and is a CNBC contributor. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and also an adjunct professor of economics at Wheaton College in Wheaton, Illinois.

Peter David Schiff (born March 23, 1963) is an American stock broker, economist, author, financial news commentator, and video blogger. Schiff is the president of Euro Pacific Capital and a 2010 candidate for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democratic Senator Chris Dodd.[1]

[Michael Larson]

As soon as joey can explain how following the same spending habits(actually much worse) of the last 40 years gets us out this mess I will gladly change my mind about where we are headed.

[Joseph Burkeson, CMI]

A standard tactic for mikey is to attack the poster and attempt to change the subject. I stand on my posts and have nothing to prove to anyone, not now not ever. This is America, you have the freedom to believe whatever it is you want regardless of how ridiculous it is... carry on.

[Michael Larson]

Originally Posted by jburkeson1

A standard tactic for mikey is to attack the poster and attempt to change the subject. I stand on my posts and have nothing to prove to anyone, not now not ever. This is America, you have the freedom to believe whatever it is you want regardless of how ridiculous it is... carry on.

Do you seriously believe it is me who is the attacker?

[Joseph Burkeson, CMI]

In another report guaranteed to upset the haters...

Government data show an ongoing but uneven economic recovery



In another sign of the nation's uneven economic recovery, new data released Monday showed manufacturing activity at its highest level in more than five years while consumer demand continued to moderate.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index of manufacturing activity hit 58.4 points in January, the sixth consecutive monthly increase and the best performance since August 2004. A reading above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding. Thirteen of the 18 manufacturing categories showed growth last month, with apparel leading the way.

"This month's report provides significant assurance that the manufacturing sector is in recovery," said Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee.

Excerpt: http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/01/not...hannellighttop