Online Realtor - Customer - CMI INSPECTOR FEED BACK QUESTIONNAIRE

[James H. Bushart]

Originally Posted by jmichalski

the data at hand, which shows established inspectors (who are really the people we are discussing since newbies should not be considered for CMI) perform an average of 250+ per year.

Please post your source for this data.

[jmichalski]

Originally Posted by gromicko

With regard to number of inspections per year, the average isn't a true depiction of the average inspector. This is because there are really 2 average inspectors. That is to say there are two general camps of inspectors... those that made it over the hump and are in what I call full stride, doing about as many inspections as they want, and those that haven't made it over the hump and are doing far fewer inspections than they want. There is very little middle ground, even though the average, any average, lands in the middle.

Also, something else Michael showed me a while back... once a home inspector gets to his 6th year or so... he's often in it for life. That is to say if you get that far, your inspection business becomes very profitable and so you run it right into retirement.

This is true of ANY business: it is derived from a SBA study showing the success rate of businesses as a function of years in business. By year 6, you have an established presence in the marketplace and are in the maturing stages of the business.

You are right. There are abject failures and successes. Very few muddle through week to week once they get over that hump. This is the pool of inspectors we should be discussing when comapring what percentage of inspectors are eligible to achieve CMI, in order for it to be meaningful.

[jmichalski]

Originally Posted by jbushart

Please post your source for this data.

I don't have it bookmarked, and I am going from memory right now, but I believe it is from one of the more recent ASHI surveys (perhaps 2003 or 2004).

If I have a moment I will look it up. I'm sure Nick knows/has this data.

[Nick Gromicko]

Also consider that when we are talking about the average inspector here, or the ones we meet at inspection events or the ones we meet at chapter meetings... we are probably talking about the top 20% of all inspectors to begin with. And 5% of 100 is actually 25% of the top 20%. There is plenty evidence that indicates that our industry is 80% silent majority who do very few inspections on average. Look at all the schools pumping them out day and night, look at the number of ASHI Candidates, look at the 77,000 in www.everyinspector.com We don't see or hear from these folks much but they make up the industry and have to be weighted when talking about what portion CMIs make up.

[Nick Gromicko]

Joe M. writes:

Clearly, the survey only reflects the information from those who responded. How could they possibly get informoation from those who don't?

Exactly. It only reflects the information from those who responded, that means you have to find them to even have a chance of getting them to respond. The survey is meaningless.

To answer your question, the way to get the true average is to take the number of inspections done in the country (you can get this number roughly by multiplying the number of homes sold by the percentage of home inspected) and then dividing it by the number of inspectors out there (at least 77,000 as per www.everyinspector.com) which puts it at about 160 per inspector per year.

[jmichalski]

If you take 77,000 as an accurate number, and want to include those who - by your statement - perform very few inspections (and I agree), then the bar is set too low.

We should be looking to identify the 3 or 5% of those who actively represent the profession to produce real "masters". Otherwise, it is just a watered down statistic, and - as I think we all agree - anyone with 3-4 years in the business will qualify.

Simply existing in business for 3-4 years should not make you a "master".

[Nick Gromicko]

The 77,000 is not accurate. It is the number of inspectors we could find, so that means there is more. Not many more, but certainly growing. And if you call from that list, not a jackass survey of inspectors who belong to an association or are in the yellow pages or who fill out surveys and mail them in voluntarily, but a real survey, you will find that only 1 in about 30 make it to their 5th year. You can't call the guys who went out of business.

I know, it's terrible.

[Nick Gromicko]

Allen insurance produced data once that showed 1/2 of all inspectors don't get through their first year, and that data is skewed because an inspector purchasing E&O is clearly more serious about the business than the average newbie. So it's probably worse.

[Nick Gromicko]

Anyway, I've convinced myself that an inspector who has been in business 5 or 6 years represents 3% to 5% of our total industry. I don't believe that there are 2,500 of them out there.

[jmichalski]

Originally Posted by gromicko

The 77,000 is not accurate. It is the number of inspectors we could find, so that means there is more. Not many more, but certainly growing. And if you call from that list, not a jackass survey of inspectors who belong to an association or are in the yellow pages or who fill out surveys and mail them in voluntarily, but a real survey, you will find that only 1 in about 30 make it to their 5th year. You can't call the guys who went out of business.

I know, it's terrible.

I don't find the survey to be a "jackass" survey. It is the only significant source of information about the business of the industry that exists. All surveys of this type are voluntary and only include the reponses submitted. The same can be said of polls and other industry surveys as well.

1 in 30 seem slike a random number. On what is that based? Also, what is the source used to generate the information included in the inspector database?

Guys who went out of business should not be a consideration in determining a Master level credential.

[jmichalski]

Originally Posted by gromicko

Allen insurance produced data once that showed 1/2 of all inspectors don't get through their first year, and that data is skewed because an inspector purchasing E&O is clearly more serious about the business than the average newbie. So it's probably worse.

I don't have any of the inforamtion used to produce that number, but I would venture a guess that the number of newbies required to get E&O by their state contributed to the total number.

I am not sure that purchase of E&O is so much an indicator of being serious about the business as it is covering oneself when liability may be the greatest (least amount of experience).

I guess - in the end - I don't think that a Master level certification should equate to a label saying "I survived in business for 3-4 years". Seems kind of....typical. Not the stuff of a Master.

[John Bowman]

The number of NACHI Inspectors who submit their 100 reports for verification purposes certainly supports many of the %'s quoted here.

[jmichalski]

Originally Posted by gromicko

Anyway, I've convinced myself that an inspector who has been in business 5 or 6 years represents 3% to 5% of our total industry. I don't believe that there are 2,500 of them out there.

To use your math:

Dividing the number of inspections by 77,000 gets about 160 inspetions per year on average.

You indicate that as much as 80% of that 77,000 are not active inspectors or perform very few inspections. This means that established inspectors are very likely performing the 250+ as indicated by the ASHI survey.

It is probable that most inspectors will achieve 1000 inspections plus CE hours sometime in years 3 or 4.

So, if (as you have convinced yourself) 3-5% make it 5-6 years, a greater percentage make it to 3-4 years. (10-20% would probably be a fair estimate).

The SBA indicates that the failure rate for small businesses is 50% for Year 1, and 95% for year 5. This information is skewed as business which change names, change owners, or expand are considerd "failed" when it is more likely that they have been very successful.

The BLS indicates that typical suvival rates for all business are between 50-70 percent for year 2, and 30-50 percent for year 4, depending on industry.

All of that is to say that somewhere between 10 - 30 percent of all inspectors (using even the gloomiest, somewhat inacucurate data available) are likely to make it to years 3 or 4 when they will all qualify for the CMI desigantion.

Not the stuff of a Master, IMO.

[James H. Bushart]

Originally Posted by jmichalski

I don't have any of the inforamtion used to produce that number........I would venture a guess ......I am not sure ......I guess ........Seems kind of....

One hell of an argument, if you ask me.

[Blaine Wiley]

When I first went into business I bought a HomeTeam franchise. The two previous attempts in my area lasted 6 months and 8 months respectively. Neither owner performed more than 33 inspections.